District Random

A forum full of randomness!
 
HomePortalCalendarFAQSearchMemberlistUsergroupsRegisterLog in

Share | 
 

 The Monty Hall problem

Go down 
AuthorMessage
Hammer Bro.
Admin
Admin
avatar

Posts : 442
Credits : 43450
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-24
Age : 22
Location : Dublin, Ireland

Character sheet
Test1:

PostSubject: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 6:36 am

The Monty Hall problem is a famous puzzle based on an American game show. Here it is:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to stick with Door No. 1, or switch to Door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

You, of course, want the car.

So, what would you do?

I'll be revealing the "secret" soon, so just say what you would do and don't ruin it for other people by looking it up. Wink (If you already know it, don't reveal it either, because people might still be trying to figure it out themeselves) Smile
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://district-random.forumotion.net
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 6:59 am

Sounds interesting, and is the 1st I've heard of it.

I'd probably give in and swap tbh.

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 7:06 am

What.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Hammer Bro.
Admin
Admin
avatar

Posts : 442
Credits : 43450
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-24
Age : 22
Location : Dublin, Ireland

Character sheet
Test1:

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 7:23 am

KrikenKing wrote:
What.

It makes sense. Just read over it. xD (If you think this part is complicated, just wait till you hear the answer) Wink
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://district-random.forumotion.net
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 7:25 am

I want to look it up but I know I really shouldn't D:

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
unclekevo
Supreme Assassin
Supreme Assassin
avatar

Posts : 668
Credits : 19669
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 23
Location : Northern Ireland

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 8:03 am

I would swap as well

_________________


http://thebuzz.forumotion.com
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://thebuzz.forumotion.com
Jazz
Somebody
Somebody


Posts : 792
Credits : 46496
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2010-01-24

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 8:46 am

But...but I want the goat...
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 8:49 am

Thought you would...

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 8:52 am

I want the host. *pulls out dagger*
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 9:01 am

But.. what if he's not Irish?

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 9:03 am

I'm a King. I can kill anyone I deem suspicious.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 9:07 am

Then kill Mr. K as he killed Twi.

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 9:13 am

Routledge: *puts on tinted spectacles* There is not yet enough evidence to deem him murderous, yet all gameshow hosts are miserable misers and deserve a little stabbing.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 9:20 am

Awww D:

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
Jazz
Somebody
Somebody


Posts : 792
Credits : 46496
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2010-01-24

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 10:26 am

Cormster wrote:
Thought you would...
No you didn't...Why don't you like me?

...

I didn't think there was any advantage to switching though....
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 11:27 am

Jazz wrote:
Cormster wrote:
Thought you would...
No you didn't...Why don't you like me?

...

I didn't think there was any advantage to switching though....

Sorry If I made you think that I didn't wuvv you, Jazz. Course I do.

Also, if there's no advantage to switching, then there's no advantage to not switching :/

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
Jazz
Somebody
Somebody


Posts : 792
Credits : 46496
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2010-01-24

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sat May 15, 2010 2:01 pm

"Why don't you like me?" was the question I asked you earlier Razz
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Hammer Bro.
Admin
Admin
avatar

Posts : 442
Credits : 43450
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-24
Age : 22
Location : Dublin, Ireland

Character sheet
Test1:

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 4:55 am

I think it's time to reveal: THE ANSWER!

Probably one of the easiest ways to explain how this works, is by simulating it with three playing cards from a normal deck.(Me and my playing cards Razz) (Also, you can get a deck of playing cards and try it for yourself too if you want)

Let's say, the Ace of spades represents the car. 2 random cards represent the goats.

Now, seeing as there are 2 random cards, there's a 2 in 3 chance of you picking one of them, right?

And seeing as there's one Ace of spades, there's a 1 in 3 chance of you picking it, right?

So, when you start, there's more of a chance of you picking a random card(A goat) than the Ace of Spades(The car)

This also means, that when you take away one of the random cards, if you switch your choice, the probability of getting the car changes to 2 in 3.

That last bit confused you didn't it? Wink

Well here's a diagram to help you understand:




So, this means, that there's a 2 in 3 chance of you getting the car if you switch, but only a 1 in 3 chance of you getting the car if you stick with your original answer.

So, it's better to switch! Smile

If you have any questions, or if you still don't get it, just say and I'll answer your queries as well as I can.
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://district-random.forumotion.net
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 8:43 am

Back to top Go down
View user profile
Jazz
Somebody
Somebody


Posts : 792
Credits : 46496
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2010-01-24

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 11:08 am

The diagram confused me even more... ;-;
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 11:18 am

Jazz wrote:
The diagram confused me even more... ;-;

Use this video to help you understand better:

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 11:35 am

It's a shame that chances of you playing a 70's gameshow are less than 1%.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Cormster
Sage
Sage
avatar

Posts : 1914
Credits : 23564
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2010-01-30
Age : 21
Location : Northern Ireland

Character sheet
Test1: 1200

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 11:41 am

xD Very true...

_________________
Click the nice siggeh.

Credit to DarkJelly for the awesome sig btw!
Back to top Go down
View user profile http://www.Cormster101.webs.com
KrikenKing
Randomer
Randomer
avatar

Posts : 255
Credits : 16073
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2010-04-03

PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   Sun May 16, 2010 12:01 pm

Also, lol, 'booby prize'. It doesn't so bad when you put it like that.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Sponsored content




PostSubject: Re: The Monty Hall problem   

Back to top Go down
 
The Monty Hall problem
Back to top 
Page 1 of 1
 Similar topics
-
» possible 4l60e problem?
» I need some help with a Nerf problem..
» power transformer problem - help?
» Toronto 2nd anniversary at Steinway Hall Sept 1991
» Don Juan Rehearsal...What's really the problem here?

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
District Random :: The General Discussion District :: The Random District-
Jump to: